Syed Saleem Shahzad of Asia Times reports that Taliban command and control in Southern Afghanistan has devolved onto numerous local commanders following the death of Mullah Dadullah last year. NATO forces killed Dadullah in a targeted attack and his rumored replacement, Maulana Jalaluddin Haqqani is reportedly seriously ill or perhaps dead. In this situation, the Taliban elected to empower a wide range of local field commanders to act autonomously
According to Shahzad, the autonomous commands have launched a wide range of medium-sized and small attacks designed to stretch NATO and Afghan National Army forces thin.
U.S. officials have reportedly abandoned the idea of ‘hot pursuit’ chases into Pakistan, preferring instead to enhance sophisticated tracking programs to monitor Taliban activities in the Northwest Frontier and North and South Waziristan.
Though Shahzad maintains that Western intelligence agencies have come to believe that killing Dadullah was a “big mistake,” it is unclear from the article whether Dadullah’s death and the resulting autonomy of local commanders is really underlying the mounting Taliban activity. It would make rumored back-channel negotiations between Kabul and the Taliban more difficult, but might ease negotiations with individual commander. Historically ‘autonomous local command’ of guerilla organizations has quickly devolved into warlordism.
The report comes as Arab News reports at least 20 dead in Waziristan following what appears to be a rocket attack on a madrassa there. Waziristan was given de facto autonomy through a peace agreement between the Pakistani government and local nobles that ended a bloody two-year conflict. Western and Afghan officials have complained that Waziristan provides a safe haven for Taliban fighters in southern Afghanistan.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IF21Df01.html
