Foreign Policy magazine released its annual Failed States Index today. The magazine also investigates the links between failed states and religious intolerance.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3865&page=0
June 22, 2007
CFR Report on Syria and Iran
The Council on Foreign Relations’ Lionel Breehner reports on the state of Syria and Iran’s “Odd Couple” relationship. The basic lesson: Syria is clearly looking to reach out, but don’t make the mistake of thinking the Syrian-Iranian relationship is weak.
http://www.cfr.org/publication/7637/
Times: Fighting among Shia Mounts in S. Iraq
The Human Security Report Project at Simon Fraser University reported a New York Times story today about rising violence among Shia factions in the southern Iraqi province of Diyalah. Violence is apparently directed by rival gangs loosely connected to the movement of Moktada al-Sadr against American troops and against supporters of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim’s Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution. Diyalah was strongly supportive of the 1991 uprising against Saddam Hussein, an uprising that ‘lead’ more or less by supporters of al-Sadr’s father.
The Sadrist movement, grouped together under the rubrics of the Jaish al-Mahdi (Army of the Mahdi), the National Cadres party and the Sadriyun faction of the ruling government, has long been a source of instability in Iraq, originally because of Sadr’s own militancy, which was directed both against the Americans and the government and against the Najaf clerical establishment led by Ayatollah Sistani. Recently, however, it has become increasingly apparent that the Jaish al-Mahdi has become highly fragmented. Evidence in Mark Etherington’s excellent book Revolt on the Tigris: The al-Sadr Uprising and the Governing of Iraq suggests that the Mahdi Army was always more of a loose confederation than a centrally-directed insurgent movement.
There has been substantial concern among observers that the turning over of ‘peaceful’ southern provinces to Iraqi rule was a short-term solution that, in the absence of a functional political system at either the national or the provincial level, would eventually lead to either an uneasy balance of power or to civil war among the Shiites. Though some will point to this as evidence of a coming clash between pro-Iranian Shiites and anti-Iranian Shiites, this is more likely an internal competition for power between various groups.
More Information:
An International Crisis Group report on Moqtada al-Sadr and the Mahdi Army released early this year. In my view it overestimates al-Sadr’s control over his forces.
The Council on Foreign Relations’ has a brief introduction to the Sadrist movement from 2004.
June 20, 2007
UPDATE: Abbas Condemns Hamas
Ahead of next week’s meeting with Prime Minister Olmert, PA President Mahmoud Abbas said there would be no talks with Hamas and called the group “murderous terrorists,” it was the strongest language yet used by the Palestinian President about the Islamist group that seized power in Gaza last week.
Abbas accused Hamas of supplanting the Palestinian’s “national project” with a “project of darkness” and of trying to set up a separate state in Gaza.
Palestinian President Abbas speaking today (AFP/Al Jazeera)
“It’s a fight between the national project and this small kingdom they want to establish in Gaza, the kingdom of Gaza, between those who are using assassination and killing to achieve their goals, and those who are using the rules of law,” he said Wednesday in a televised address from the Palestinian capital in Ramallah.
The move severely undercut efforts by Hamas and by factions of Fatah to move toward re-establishing dialogue and appeared to support observers who have argued that Hamas’s takeover of Gaza is moving the Palestinians at least temporarily toward two governments, a Fatah-controlled government in the West Bank with which the West and Israel are willing to work, and a Hamas-controlled Gaza that appears increasingly to be cut off from the rest of the world accept for humanitarian emergency assistance.
Fatah appeared unified today, in contrast to the last week where it appeared paralyzed and rent with internal divisions. President Abbas said he intended to convene the Palestine Liberation Organization’s central body and the Palestinian Central Council, the 129-member Fatah dominated central body of the Palestinian government. There were no signs of opposition from within Fatah as legislators openly stated that both meetings were intended to “topple” Hamas. Legislators will reportedly debate moving up the scheduled date for new legislative elections. The convening of legislative bodies is seen as highly important for Abbas, whose Emergency Decree is technically extralegal. Unlike Yasser Arafat, Abbas lacks the political power or the personal stature to rule outside of some institutional control of an extended period of time.
Hamas countered with renewed calls for a unity government, with Abu Marzouk, the deputy of Hamas’s Damascus-based Political Bureau, calling for a “government of technocrats” without political allegiances. It was a marked retreat from earlier calls for renewed negotiations between the two parties. Many observers believed that Hamas initially thought that the balance of power in the Occupied Territories had shifted to favor the Islamist organization and would support Hamas gains in negotiations. Marzouk said it was Abbas, and not Hamas, that was attempting to create two Palestinian states.
Abbas also reiterated his banning of Hamas.
Mideast: Israel Strikes at Gaza Targets as Hamas and Fatah Struggle; Barak Imperils Bibi Premiership; Egyptian Elections a Joke; Israel Braces for Gay Rights Parade
ISRAEL STRIKES AT TARGETS IN GAZA, KILLING SIX
Six militants, most of them from Hamas, were reported killed in separate attacks by the IDF in Gaza this morning. Israeli troops clashed with militants near the Kissifum border crossing in Gaza, leaving two Hamas militants and two militants from another group dead, while near the embattled Israeli town of Sderot the Israeli Air Force struck at Qassam rocket installations leaving at least two Hamas militants dead. The stikes come only a few weeks after Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said that there was nothing that could be done about Hamas rocket strikes and highlight the aggressive posture that incoming Defense Minister and Labor Party leader Ehud Barak has taken on Hamas.
At the same time, Barak has authorized the relaxation of border controls to allow thousands of refugees to escape Gaza. Foreign diplomats, journalists, aid workers and Gazans aligned with Fatah are among those who are fleeing the Strip after Hamas’s violent takeover last week.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s office confirmed that he would be meeting with embattled Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas sometime next week. The right-wing Israel Insider reported that Olmert intends to relax checkpoint controls in the West Bank as an offering to Abbas.
Hamas spokesman Abu Zuhri condemned Western and unnamed Arab leaders for attempting to “blackmail” the Palestinian people into accepting Fatah control as Hamas and Fatah continued to trade barbs and evidence of internal division in both groups mounted. A Fatah spokesperson took the strongest line yet on Fatah-Hamas negotiations, saying that there would be no negotiations because Hamas had broken the law. Former Foreign Minister and Hamas member Mahmoud Zahar blamed Fatah for spreading anarchy to the West Bank by attacking and imprisoning Hamas militants there and ominously warned that Hamas would be compelled to “take measures to defend our representatives” in the West Bank. He also voiced support for factions of Fatah opposed to the current leadership, pointedly referring to Mahmoud Dahlan, the ousted security czar and Hamas opponent, and not Mahmoud Abbas, as exemplifying the leadership faction.
Fatah is rent by internal dissension following its collapse in Gaza. A series of articles in the British Daily Telegraph detail feelings of betrayal by Fatah loyalists still in Gaza. Charles Levinson, reporting from Gaza City, says that “Fatah loyalists widely suspect a political decision was made early on in Ramallah to surrender the Gaza Strip to Hamas.” Fatah security commanders were absent and the political leadership escaped to the West Bank and Egypt while Fatah militants were left leaderless and unable to coordinate opposition to the Hamas offensive.
At the very best, key constituencies within Fatah were either unable or unwilling to mobilize their supporters to resist Hamas. Fatah has become increasingly divided between Abbas, Dahlan and others who support cooperation with the organization. Significant Fatah leaders like Jibril Rajoub, who has been eyed as a potential successor to Dahlan as security czar, Marwan Barghouti, a Palestinian legislator associated with the Al Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade, and Ahmed Hilis a high-ranking Fatah official in Gaza are all strong proponents of unity talks with Hamas. Barghouti orchestrated the Mecca powersharing accord. Coincidentally, Jerusalem Post reports that a former Fatah activist in Gaza, Abu Hila, has declared the formation of a new political party Fatah al-Yasser, named for Yasser Arafat, which is aligned with Hamas. It is unclear whether this new formation will get much support from Gazans, but it underscores the fragility of Abbas’s leadership.
Hamas faces its own problems. The organization’s political leadership under dismissed Prime Minister Ismail Haniyah, has made conciliatory gestures toward Israel, Fatah and the international community. Haniyah has said he will work for the release of kidnapped BBC correspondent Alan Johnston and has made overtures to Fatah to restart the unity government. There have been persistent reports that Hamas is interested in renewing its hudna (truce) with Israel. At the same time, however, there have been persistent reports of attacks against Gazan Christians and efforts by Hamas-linked militants to impose Sharia law and it is unclear whether the Qassam attacks or the recent clash with Israeli troops were authorized. The al-Qaeda linked Army of Islam has steadfastly refused to negotiate for Mr. Johnston’s release, or for that of kidnapped Israeli soldier Galid Shalit.
BARAK IMPERILS BIBI’S PREMIERSHIP
Until last week it appeared that former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin (‘Bibi’) Netanyahu was well on his way to being Premier again. Netanyahu, the leader of the conservative Likud party and a foreign policy hawk, has gotten out to a big lead over Kadima leader and current Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, and Labor leader Amir Peretz.
But new polls in Israel show incoming Defense Minister and Labor Party leader Ehud Barak in a dead heat with Netanyahu, a major change. Barak replaces discredited Defense Minister Amir Peretz and gives Labor a solid candidate for the Prime Ministership argues the liberal Ha’aretz newspaper.
Netanyahu has been a major hawk, staunchly rejecting the Oslo Process as wrongheaded and rejecting Ariel Sharon’s Disengagement policy. Ha’aretz columnist Mazal Mualem says that Netanyahu has been running an “I told you so campaign,” pointing to the Lebanon situation, Gaza and the chaos in the West Bank as evidence that he was right when he opposed withdrawal from Lebanon and Disengagement. But Mualem argues that with Barak in charge at the Defense Ministry and apparently ready to take action against Hamas in Gaza, Netanyahu will have to develop a more detailed approach.
EGYPT ELECTIONS ARE A JOKE
The reformist Al Ahram magazine dismissed Egypt’s Shura Council elections held over the past week. The ruling National Democratic Party stands to win at least 68 of the body’s 88 seats.
The magazine quotes the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights as saying that turnout for the election was barely 6 percent of elligable voters. Al Jazeera and international human rights and civil society organizations have all said that the government harrassed opposition candidates and mobilized security forces to prevent supporters of the powerful Muslim Brotherhood from reaching polling places during balloting.
ISRAEL BRACES FOR GAY PRIDE PARADE
Police in Tel Aviv and around the country are bracing for violence by Orthodox and Hasidic protesters when the nation’s largest Gay Pride parade takes place later this week. Ha’aretz and YNet News reported that Tel Aviv police were undergoing extensive training for riot control in preparation for violence by religious groups.
The fears come despite an appeal from United Torah Judaism, the country’s largest organization representing Orthodox, Hasidic and Haredi Jews, to remain off the streets and to avoid demonstrations in favor of prayer. Police arrested 12 Orthodox Jews, eight of them teenagers, who were throwing rocks at cars last night in the Tel Aviv neighborhood of Bnai Brak according to YNET.
U.S. Operations Continue in Iraq as Bombing Murders 87
U.S. and Iraqi efforts to dislodge al-Qaeda insurgents in the city of Baquba, outside Baghdad, continued today with U.S. and Iraqi officials complaining that more than 30 militants had been killed and Iraq’s Interior Ministry claiming locals were welcoming Iraqi security forces. But a bombing at a Shiite mosque in Baghdad killed 87 yesterday and underlined the fragility of progress against terrorist activity there.
U.S. officials were optmistic in reports today. In a discussion on CNN’s American Morning, General Ray Odierno said that the new troops afforded by the controversia “Surge” policy enabled U.S. forces to move toward a strategy of destroying, rather than dislodging insurgents. The New York Times reported that U.S. forces were attempting to block exit routes to prevent al Qaeda militants from escaping Baquba and resettling elsewhere. Many analysts have argued that U.S. and Iraqi forces cannot afford to repeat the shortcomings of U.S. Marine operations in Anbar Province, which enhanced security there, but led to many militants relocating to other parts of Iraq because Marines and their local allies did not have the manpower to prevent their escape. The report said that U.S. military leaders wanted to kill or capture between 3-500 al Qaeda fighters, a substantial percentage of al Qaeda’s organization in the so-called ‘Baghdad Belts,’ Sunni-dominated and al-Qaeda controlled cities, towns and villages outside of Baghdad that U.S. and Iraqi officials say are staging areas for suicide bombers and accelerants used to make bombs and booby traps that have hampered the surge in Baghdad.
U.S. troops intend to collect fingerprints and biometric data from local civilians in order to determine who is behind future bomb attacks. In addition, the Times report says that U.S. troops have entered into a relationship with former insurgents and tribal leaders against al Qaeda, a repeat of successful efforts in Anbar province to ‘peel off’ moderates, nationalists and tribal leaders from al Qaeda, which is widely identified with foreigners and has in the past attempted to impose harsh religious edicts on locals and on sometime collaborators from other insurgent groups. The Washington Post reported today that U.S. forces had entered into deals with the 1920 Revolutionary Brigade, a large and successful Baathist insurgent group, to fight against al Qaeda.
Mixed Success
Reports of initial successes in Baquba were mixed with news of another horrific suicide attack, this time on the Shiite Khalani mosqe less than a mile from the Green Zone in Baghdad. 87 people were killed when a massive carbomb severely damaged the mosque.
The Post indicated that U.S. and Iraqi officials are concerned that the bombing may indicate a tactical adjustment by al Qaeda. Initial reports indicate that the bomb was manufactured less than a mile away from the mosque in Baghdad. Previously, most bombs were imported from the Baghdad Rings, with U.S. and Iraqi military presence making it more difficult to move such weapons into Baghdad, the center of gravity for bomb production may have shifted to the city itself. Yet U.S. military officials have said that most bombs but not all are produced outside the city.
The blast struck at the heart of one of the country’s few remaining multiethnic and multisectarian neighborhoods, home to Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds. The Times reported Sunni’s racing to the mosque to help pull their Shiite neighbors from the rubble. Sunni and Shia clerics called for joint prayers this Friday and Sunni’s speaking to correspondents expressed rage at al Qaeda and Iraqi terrorists.
Yet the rage was tempered with anger at the U.S. and the Iraqi government, with some arguing that the U.S. was unwilling to help stop terror against the Iraqi people. One man opined that if the U.S. could fix a space ship, it could stop terrorism against the Iraqis.
The Jordanian Al Bawba newspaper reported that gunmen, presumably linked to Shia militias, had undertaken reprisals against Sunni mosques in Baquba.
A late report from the Times reported “fierce battles” throughout Baquba and other parts of Diyalah province.
Taliban Control Devolving says Report
Syed Saleem Shahzad of Asia Times reports that Taliban command and control in Southern Afghanistan has devolved onto numerous local commanders following the death of Mullah Dadullah last year. NATO forces killed Dadullah in a targeted attack and his rumored replacement, Maulana Jalaluddin Haqqani is reportedly seriously ill or perhaps dead. In this situation, the Taliban elected to empower a wide range of local field commanders to act autonomously
According to Shahzad, the autonomous commands have launched a wide range of medium-sized and small attacks designed to stretch NATO and Afghan National Army forces thin.
U.S. officials have reportedly abandoned the idea of ‘hot pursuit’ chases into Pakistan, preferring instead to enhance sophisticated tracking programs to monitor Taliban activities in the Northwest Frontier and North and South Waziristan.
Though Shahzad maintains that Western intelligence agencies have come to believe that killing Dadullah was a “big mistake,” it is unclear from the article whether Dadullah’s death and the resulting autonomy of local commanders is really underlying the mounting Taliban activity. It would make rumored back-channel negotiations between Kabul and the Taliban more difficult, but might ease negotiations with individual commander. Historically ‘autonomous local command’ of guerilla organizations has quickly devolved into warlordism.
The report comes as Arab News reports at least 20 dead in Waziristan following what appears to be a rocket attack on a madrassa there. Waziristan was given de facto autonomy through a peace agreement between the Pakistani government and local nobles that ended a bloody two-year conflict. Western and Afghan officials have complained that Waziristan provides a safe haven for Taliban fighters in southern Afghanistan.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IF21Df01.html
Europe: EU Commission Presiden Raps Poles
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso fulminated against perceived Polish and British efforts to stymie European integration today, according to the International Herald-Tribune. Barroso warned Poland to expect a “backlash” from other EU countries if it stands in the way of a proposed agreement to replace the European Constitution that was rejected by voters in France and The Netherlands last year. Germany, who holds the rotating presidency of the European Union and appears determined to move forward with a deal, has been at odds with the Poles on relations with Russia and has been quite aggressive in indicating that, should Poland and other Eastern European countries seek to block the proposed agreement, they would face financial repercussions when EU nations meet to discuss the allotment of ‘Social Cohesion’ and other funding next year. Great Britain was also targeted for less harsh criticism. Both the UK and Eastern European member states have historically be proponents of “widening” the European Union by including more members. The states of Central Europe, particularly France and Germany but also the BENELUX countries (Belgium, The Netherlands and Luxemburg) have generally been more supportive of “deepening” the EU. Poland, for its part, is substantially more conservative than many EU members and is wary of Europe “imposing” social reforms on Poland.
Why is this important? It has long been feared by foreign policy analysts, most memorably Henry Kissinger in his 1994 book Diplomacy that the vagaries of building Europe will cause European countries to turn inward and away from foreign policy efforts, like the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the threat of Iran and the situation in Iraq.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/06/19/news/union.php
Clinton Booed, Jeered at Liberal Conference
New York Senator 
and leading Democratic Presidential candidate Hilary Clinton (D-NY) was booed at the liberal Take Back America conference when she presented her talking points on the War in Iraq. Sen. Clinton, who was booed last year as well, parts ways with many liberal and anti-war Democrats on the war, calling for a phased withdrawal and continued commitments to provide air and intelligence support to the Iraqi military and maintain a U.S. military presence in Iraq to fight al-Qaeda. The conservative Politico magazine offered the novel analysis that she was in fact booed for blaming the Iraqis for their problems. It is more likely that the boos and cries of “get us out now,” eminated from anti-war Democrats who have been hostile toward Sen. Clinton for her position and her refusal to apologize for her vote authorizing the war in Iraq. The timing of the incident is rather unfortunate as it coincides with new polls from Iowa showing Sen. Clinton’s lead over former Senator and anti-war darling John Edwards narrowing to one point. The polls – predictably since the Iowa Caucus is about six months away – show many Iowans still undecided.
